Uterine Cancer Cases Expected to ‘Increase Substantially’ Over Next 30 Years: Study

Researchers indicate a disproportionate increase in uterine cancer could likely affect Black women.

A new study suggests that cases of uterine cancer are expected to rise sharply by 2050, resulting in significantly more deaths, especially among Black women.

The findings were published in the Journal of the American Association for Cancer Research (AARC) on July 1, using a simulation model to project future trends in uterine cancer incidence and mortality among Black and white women across the U.S.

Uterine Cancer Dangers

Uterine cancer refers to malignancies that form in the tissue of the uterus, most commonly endometrial cancer, which begins in the lining of the uterine wall.

In recent years, growing concern have emerged over the link between uterine cancer and hair relaxers, which are regularly used among African American and other minority women to straighten their hair. A number of studies have identified a higher risk of hormone-related cancers among women who regularly used products like Dark and Lovely, Just for Me, Optimum and ORS Olive Oil, due to various endocrine disrupting chemicals contained in the relaxers.

In response to these findings, more than 12,000 hair relaxer lawsuits are being pursued in federal court, each raising similar allegations that manufacturers failed to warn consumers about the cancer risks associated with repeated exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals in hair relaxers, leaving thousands of women facing life-altering diagnoses with no prior knowledge of the dangers.

In the new study, researchers from Columbia University’s College of Physicians and Surgeons developed a predictive model to estimate how uterine cancer will affect Black and white women over the next 30 years.

The researchers, led by Dr. Jason D. Wright, used a microsimulation model that followed patients from age 18, projecting the progression of uterine cancer from early precursor lesions to more advanced endometrioid and non-endometrioid tumors.

The study’s projections reveal a sharp rise in uterine cancer incidence and mortality rates by 2050, with Black women expected to face the most significant impact.

• White women: Incidence expected to increase from 57.7 cases per 100,000 (2018) to 74.2 by 2050.
• Black women: Incidence projected to rise from 56.8 to 86.9 cases per 100,000.

The team further found that uterine cancer-related deaths are also expected to climb during the same period.

• White women: Mortality rate may rise from 6.1 to 11.2 deaths per 100,000.
• Black women: Mortality rate is projected to nearly double, from 14.1 to 27.9 deaths per 100,000, underscoring a growing racial disparity.

The projected increase is largely driven by a rise in endometrioid tumors—the most common type of uterine cancer—which are expected to climb in both Black and white women. However, rates of more aggressive non-endometrioid tumors are expected to rise sharply among Black women, while remaining relatively stable among white women.

Researchers say these trends signal a significant surge in uterine cancer cases and deaths over the next 30 years, with Black women bearing a disproportionate burden. The findings underscore the urgent need for improved screening, targeted public health interventions, and equitable access to care.

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