Healthcare Staffing Issues, Hospital Bed Shortage Projected for Next Decade: Study

National hospital occupancy rates will reach nearly 85% by 2032, researchers project.

A new study suggests that the increasing demand for healthcare in the United States, driven by an aging Baby Boomer population, could lead to a severe shortage of hospital beds and medical staff in the future.

The findings were outlined in a report published in the medical journal JAMA Network Open on February 19, warning that a projected hospital bed shortage by 2035 could create a major healthcare crisis in the United States, potentially resulting in thousands of deaths each year.

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the consequences of strained healthcare resources, as hospitals faced severe bed and staffing shortages due to the rapid progression of illnesses.

In response, researchers from the David Geffen School of Medicine at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) analyzed hospitalization occupancy data to better understand future staffing and resource demands, to predict similar shortages in the years ahead.

In this new study, researchers used hospitalization data during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, along with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) data tracking dashboards, to estimate future hospital occupancy.

As part of COVID-19 data tracking, U.S. hospitals were mandated to report weekly hospital bed occupancy to the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), which oversees the CDC .

From 2009 to 2019, U.S. hospital bed occupancy was 64% on average. In the year following the end of the pandemic, hospital bed occupancy rose to 75%, the data indicates.

Overall, staffing for each hospital bed across the country declined from 802,000 pre-pandemic to 674,000 post-pandemic. The data indicates that there are less hospital staff to cover patient beds now compared to before the pandemic, even though there are more patients needing care.

Researchers warn that without changes to increase hospital staff or hospital bed supply, there may be a major shortage of hospital beds and staff in the future.

Annual hospitalizations are projected to increase from 3.6 million in 2025 to more than 4 million by 2035 due to an aging population. Researchers noted this corresponds to a national hospital occupancy of nearly 85% by 2032 for adult hospitalizations.

If hospitalization rates were 65% before the pandemic and 75% after the pandemic, a hospitalization occupancy of 85% would cause a serious hospital bed shortage, the researchers warn. In addition, if another pandemic were to occur, hospitals would be even more overwhelmed and short-staffed, possibly leading to more patient deaths than necessary.

Nursing Home Staffing Problems

Other healthcare facilities have been greatly affected by staffing shortages in recent years as well. For example, serious staffing issues have also plagued nursing homes during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

A report by the New York Attorney General indicated that understaffing at nursing homes played a major role in the high number of deaths at those facilities throughout the state during the pandemic. Other reports detailed similar findings across the country.

The problem has continued post-pandemic, researchers warn. Less than one-third of U.S. nursing homes have enough certified nurses on staff to care for residents, according to a report by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS).

The DHHS also warned that nursing home staffing shortages continue to be a major problem following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Researchers have concluded that if nursing home and hospital bed shortages are not addressed now, they may lead to severe healthcare disruptions in the future.