New Study Warns Antibiotic Resistant “Superbugs” Could Kill Nearly 40M People by 2050

Unless drastic measures are taken, tens of millions of people worldwide will die from antibiotic-resistant superbugs over the next 25 years, according to the findings of a new study.

The term “superbugs” refers to bacteria and other pathogens that are resistant to treatment with antibiotics. This makes it extremely difficult to resolve these types of infections, and many patients do not survive since available antibiotic drugs are ineffective.

In recent years, superbugs have become an increasing global health threat, and the problem is only worsening.

In a study published on September 16 in the journal The Lancet, researchers estimate the number of people who will die from antibiotic-resistant bacteria annually may increase by 70% over the next quarter century.

Researchers from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) Project collected and analyzed data from 204 countries across 30 years. A team of more than 500 researchers, led by Dr. Mohsen Naghavi, reviewed the data, which covered more than 520 million individual records.

The researchers warn that antibiotic-resistant superbugs will likely be associated with the deaths of more than 39 million people over the next 25 years.

Dr. Naghavi’s team indicates the effects are already being seen, noting that older adults experienced an 80% increase in deaths attributed to antibiotic resistance from 1990 to 2021. By 2050, that number will skyrocket, the researchers predict.

The number of deaths from specific antibiotic-resistant bacteria like methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) has already increased around the world, rising from 261,000 deaths in 1990 to more than 550,000 in 2021.

Deaths from gram-negative bacteria have increased more than any other antibiotic class, jumping from 619,000 in 1990 to more than 1.03 million in 2021. Gram-negative bacteria have a unique cell wall structure, making them immune to carbapenem antibiotics, which are used to treat many other multidrug resistant conditions, including urinary tract, E. coli, sun, skin and kidney infections.

The researchers say this is the first global analysis of antibiotic resistance trends. While the outlook is grim, they say that more than 92 million deaths could be prevented by 2050, if appropriate measures are taken.

The development of gram-negative drugs could help save 11 million people alone. By focusing on better infection prevention methods, improved access to healthcare, and the development of new antibiotics, millions more lives could be saved, Naghavi’s team concluded.

Antibiotic Overuse Concerns

Experts largely blame the emergence of superbugs on the overuse and misuse of antibiotics to treat viral infections that don’t respond to antibiotics, which allows infections to evolve and develop resistance to those available treatments.  The overuse of antibiotics in animals used for human food are also contributing to the problem.

Having a wide variety of antibiotics, antivirals and antifungals are important tools to fight the proliferation of superbugs, but research indicates the number of superbug infections is outpacing the development of new antibiotics.

Last year, the World Health Organization (WHO) said the proliferation of superbugs poses a serious threat to human health and will lead to millions of deaths unless more is done. Naghavi’s findings appear to corroborate WHO’s concerns.

“New prevention efforts to address AMR (antimicrobial resistance) must remain a priority for global health policy makers,” Naghavi said. “Our time trend analyses and the methodology used lay the foundation for additional studies to continue forecasting future AMR trends and track the progress of implemented measures in our ongoing efforts to mitigate this important global health challenge. Our forecasts of alternative scenarios show the potential to avert large numbers of deaths over the next quarter century.”