Overdose Deaths Predicted to Drop 24% Year-Over-Year in U.S.: CDC

New data shows that the number of deaths from drug overdoses may have declined significantly between 2023 and 2024, averaging 70 lives saved per day.

Federal regulators have determined that U.S. drug overdose deaths for the most recently analyzed 12-month period could be at their lowest point since June 2020.

Drug overdoses are the leading cause of death for Americans between the ages of 18 and 44, primarily due to opioids such as heroin and fentanyl.

However, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Vital Statistics System released an Overdose Deaths Report late last month, predicting a nearly 24% decline in drug overdose deaths in the United States from October 2023 through September 2024.

The provisional data estimates 87,000 deaths for the period, down from 114,000 the previous year, which is a decrease of more than 27,000 deaths, equating to an average of over 70 lives saved each day.

According to the CDC data, 45 states showed declines in overdose deaths, with only Alaska, Montana, Nevada, South Dakota and Utah seeing increases. The number of non-fatal overdoses and self-reported youth substance use has also declined.

The CDC attributes the decline in deaths to a number of factors, including:

• Widespread distribution of naloxone, a life-saving medication that can reverse overdoses,
• Better access to evidence-based treatment for substance use disorders,
• Shifts in the illegal drug supply, and
• Investments in prevention and response programs. 

One important program is the CDC’s Overdose Data to Action (OD2A) program, which provides the U.S. with a fatal and nonfatal overdose data system that state and local public health departments can use to inform which prevention efforts are able to save the most lives.

The CDC also funds the Overdose Response Strategy, an innovative collaboration across all states that merges public health and safety data. This program enables law enforcement officials to use data analytics to enhance their understanding of and intercept illegal drug activities more effectively.

Federal regulators further indicated that expanded access to treatment, which includes opioid medications, more community-driven interventions and better education, is critical to reducing the number of deaths.

U.S. Opioid Crisis

President Trump declared opioid overdoses a public health emergency in 2017. Prior to the designation, a report in 2013 found that women may be more likely to become dependent on prescription painkillers than men. 

The study indicated a 400% increase in overdose deaths among women using prescription pain medication since 1999, compared to a 265% increase among men during the same period.

In 2015, drug overdose deaths hit a new high, with prescription painkiller-related deaths increasing by 137% since 2000. A CDC report in 2018 reported that drug overdoses involving opioids accounted for nearly 70% of overdose deaths, with 68% involving opioid-based painkillers.

However, another CDC report in 2024 found that drug overdose deaths had fallen by 4% in 2023, marking the first decline in five years.